Percentage buckets: 60%, 80%, 90%, 99%
Economic, Macro
- 60%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than it starts (28,590 USD).
- 60%: Ether ends year lower than it starts (730 USD).
- 60%: Gold ends year higher than it starts (1,907 USD).
- 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan than started (6.53%).
- 60%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 0.1% current (260k per day) at end of year
- 80%: Unemployment rate ends year lower than starts (6.7%).
- 80%: Bitcoin ends year above 8k USD.
- 80%: Bitcoin ends year below 56k USD.
- 80%: Ethereum ends year above 200 USD.
- 80%: Ethereum end year below 1400 USD.
- 90%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 1% current (260k per day) at end of year
- 99%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 10% current (260k per day) at end of year
Technical + Misc
- 80%: SLS is not canceled.
- 80%: Tesla does not complete coast-to-coast autonomous drive.
- 80%: Tesla opens up FSD beta to everyone in US.
- 80%: Starship superheavy booster does test flight.
- 80%: Starship does test flight to > 20k.
- 80%: OpenAI publishes or opens new interesting stuff about cross-modal learning.
- 90%: More hardware blows up while working on Starship.
- 99%: No plausibly AGI system goes public.
- 99%: MIRI releases nothing of immediate technical use.
- 99%: Gary Marcus does not admit he was wrong about important progress being made.
Political
- 80%: Trump is not in jail.
- 99%: Trump is not president / dictator.
Health
- 60%: My hand is better at EOY, no typing problems
- 80%: My knee is better at EOY, able to exercise bike sometimes.
- 60%: I will not have learned to code by voice
- 80%: My plantar fascitis is NOT 100% better.
- 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below for a day at least.
Meta
- 80%: No post on site has > 1000 views.
- 99%: This post has < 1000 views.
- 99%: No post on site has > 100000 views.
Goals / Personal
- 60%: ████ ██████████████ █ ███████ █ █ █████
- 60%: Blog is still updated in > 6 months.
- 60%: Have not finished book.
- 90%: █████ ████ ██████████ █████ ████ █████ █
- 99%: █████████████ █ █ █ █ █████████ █ █████
- 99%: ██ █ ███ █ ███████ █████████
- 99%: ███ █ █████
- 80%: █ ██████ ███ ██ █ ██ ████
- 99%: ███████████ ██ ████████ ██ ████
- 80%: █ ██████ █████ ██ ███ █████ ███████████████████ █
- 60%: █████████ ████████████████ ██████████████████████
- 80%: ███████ ██ ████ ██ █
- 80%: █ ██ █ █ ████████ █ █████ █ ███████████████ ███████
- 99%: ████ ██ ████████████ █ █████████ ██ ██
- 60%: ████████ ██ █ ██ ████████ ████████ ██ █████
- 60%: █████ █ ██ █████████ ██ █