1 A 3 O R N

Predictions for 2021

Created: 2020-12-31
Wordcount: 0.4k

Percentage buckets: 60%, 80%, 90%, 99%

Economic, Macro

  1. 60%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than it starts (28,590 USD).
  2. 60%: Ether ends year lower than it starts (730 USD).
  3. 60%: Gold ends year higher than it starts (1,907 USD).
  4. 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan than started (6.53%).
  5. 60%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 0.1% current (260k per day) at end of year
  6. 80%: Unemployment rate ends year lower than starts (6.7%).
  7. 80%: Bitcoin ends year above 8k USD.
  8. 80%: Bitcoin ends year below 56k USD.
  9. 80%: Ethereum ends year above 200 USD.
  10. 80%: Ethereum end year below 1400 USD.
  11. 90%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 1% current (260k per day) at end of year
  12. 99%: US Covid-19 infection rates < 10% current (260k per day) at end of year

Technical + Misc

  1. 80%: SLS is not canceled.
  2. 80%: Tesla does not complete coast-to-coast autonomous drive.
  3. 80%: Tesla opens up FSD beta to everyone in US.
  4. 80%: Starship superheavy booster does test flight.
  5. 80%: Starship does test flight to > 20k.
  6. 80%: OpenAI publishes or opens new interesting stuff about cross-modal learning.
  7. 90%: More hardware blows up while working on Starship.
  8. 99%: No plausibly AGI system goes public.
  9. 99%: MIRI releases nothing of immediate technical use.
  10. 99%: Gary Marcus does not admit he was wrong about important progress being made.

Political

  1. 80%: Trump is not in jail.
  2. 99%: Trump is not president / dictator.

Health

  1. 60%: My hand is better at EOY, no typing problems
  2. 80%: My knee is better at EOY, able to exercise bike sometimes.
  3. 60%: I will not have learned to code by voice
  4. 80%: My plantar fascitis is NOT 100% better.
  5. 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below for a day at least.

Meta

  1. 80%: No post on side has > 1000 views.
  2. 99%: This post has < 1000 views.
  3. 99%: No post on site has > 100000 views.

Goals / Personal

  1. 60%: ██████ ███████ ████████ ███ █ ██ █ ██████
  2. 60%: Blog is still updated in > 6 months.
  3. 60%: Have not finished book.
  4. 90%: █████████ █ █ ██ █████████ ██ █ ███ ███████
  5. 99%: ████ █ ████ ██████ █████████ ███ ██ ██ ██
  6. 99%: ██ █ ██ ████ █ ██████████ ████████
  7. 99%: ███████████
  8. 80%: ███ ██████ █ ████ █ ███ ██ ███
  9. 99%: ███ ███ █ █ █████ ████████ ██ ██
  10. 80%: ██████ ████ ███ ████████ █████ █████████ ██ ██
  11. 60%: ███████████████████████ █ ████ ███ █████████ ████
  12. 80%: █ █ █ ██████ ██████ █
  13. 80%: █ ████████ █ █████ ███████ ██████ █ █ ███████ █
  14. 99%: ██████████ █ █ ███████████ █ ███ ████
  15. 60%: ██ █ ██████████ ████████ █ █ ██████████
  16. 60%: ███ ██ █████ ██████ ████