Predictions for 2022

Percentage buckets: 60%, 80%, 90%

Economic, Macro

1. 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan (6.36)
2. 80%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than 150k.
3. 80%: Bitcoin ends the year higher than 16k.
4. 80%: Ether ends year lower than 10k.
5. 80%: Ether ends year higher than 1.2k.
6. 80%: Gold ends year > 1.2k and lower than 2.4k.
7. 80%: Unemployment is < 6%.
8. 60%: Inflation by CPI > 4.5%.
9. 80%: Inflation by CPI > 3.5%.
10. 80%: Inflation by CPI < 12%
11. 60%: Inflation by CPI < 8%

Politics

1. 90%: China hasn't invaded Taiwan

Technical + Misc

1. 80%: SLS is not canceled.
2. 80%: Starship reaches > 100 kilometers at least once.
3. 60%: GPT-3 successor released by OpenAI.
4. 90%: Something more efficient than EfficientZero on Atari 100k comes out.
5. 60%: Something I judge "more impressive" than the DeepMind general learner, in terms of generality, comes out.

Health

1. 80%: █████████ ███ ███ █ ████ █████ ███
2. 80%: ██████ ███ █ █ █████ █ ████ ███████████████
3. 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below, generally, for a day at least.
4. 90%: ███████████

Meta

1. 60%: Site has total of < 20000 views.
2. 80%: Site has total of < 100000 views.

Goals / Personal

1. 90%: Blog is still something I actively work on at end of year.
2. 80%: █ ███ █ ███████ █ █████ █████████ █
3. 80%: ██████████████ █████████
4. 90%: ███ ██ ███ █ ████████████ █ ██ ███████ █ █ █
5. 80%: ██ █████████████ █████ ██ █████████████████████ ██
6. 90%: ███ ███ █ ███ ██████ ████ ██ █████ ██ █
7. 80%: ██████ █████████ ███████