1 A 3 O R N

Predictions for 2022

Created: 2022-01-02
Wordcount: 0.2k

Percentage buckets: 60%, 80%, 90%

Economic, Macro

  1. 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan (6.36)
  2. 80%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than 150k.
  3. 80%: Bitcoin ends the year higher than 16k.
  4. 80%: Ether ends year lower than 10k.
  5. 80%: Ether ends year higher than 1.2k.
  6. 80%: Gold ends year > 1.2k and lower than 2.4k.
  7. 80%: Unemployment is < 6%.
  8. 60%: Inflation by CPI > 4.5%.
  9. 80%: Inflation by CPI > 3.5%.
  10. 80%: Inflation by CPI < 12%
  11. 60%: Inflation by CPI < 8%

Politics

  1. 90%: China hasn't invaded Taiwan

Technical + Misc

  1. 80%: SLS is not canceled.
  2. 80%: Starship reaches > 100 kilometers at least once.
  3. 60%: GPT-3 successor released by OpenAI.
  4. 90%: Something more efficient than EfficientZero on Atari 100k comes out.
  5. 60%: Something I judge "more impressive" than the DeepMind general learner, in terms of generality, comes out.

Health

  1. 80%: ███ █████████████████ ██ █ ███████
  2. 80%: ████████ █ █████████ ████████ █ █ ███████████
  3. 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below, generally, for a day at least.
  4. 90%: ████████ █

Meta

  1. 60%: Site has total of < 20000 views.
  2. 80%: Site has total of < 100000 views.

Goals / Personal

  1. 90%: Blog is still something I actively work on at end of year.
  2. 80%: █████████████████████ ██████████
  3. 80%: ██████ █████ ████ ███████
  4. 90%: █ ███████ ██████ ███ ██ ██████ ██ █████████
  5. 80%: ██████████ ███████ ███ ███████ █ ██████ █ ████████
  6. 90%: ██ █ ███████████████████████████████████
  7. 80%: █████ █████████████ ████