Percentage buckets: 60%, 80%, 90%
Economic, Macro
- 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan (6.36)
- 80%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than 150k.
- 80%: Bitcoin ends the year higher than 16k.
- 80%: Ether ends year lower than 10k.
- 80%: Ether ends year higher than 1.2k.
- 80%: Gold ends year > 1.2k and lower than 2.4k.
- 80%: Unemployment is < 6%.
- 60%: Inflation by CPI > 4.5%.
- 80%: Inflation by CPI > 3.5%.
- 80%: Inflation by CPI < 12%
- 60%: Inflation by CPI < 8%
Politics
- 90%: China hasn't invaded Taiwan
Technical + Misc
- 80%: SLS is not canceled.
- 80%: Starship reaches > 100 kilometers at least once.
- 60%: GPT-3 successor released by OpenAI.
- 90%: Something more efficient than EfficientZero on Atari 100k comes out.
- 60%: Something I judge "more impressive" than the DeepMind general learner, in terms of generality, comes out.
Health
- 80%: ███ █████████████████ ██ █ ███████
- 80%: ████████ █ █████████ ████████ █ █ ███████████
- 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below, generally, for a day at least.
- 90%: ████████ █
Meta
- 60%: Site has total of < 20000 views.
- 80%: Site has total of < 100000 views.
Goals / Personal
- 90%: Blog is still something I actively work on at end of year.
- 80%: █████████████████████ ██████████
- 80%: ██████ █████ ████ ███████
- 90%: █ ███████ ██████ ███ ██ ██████ ██ █████████
- 80%: ██████████ ███████ ███ ███████ █ ██████ █ ████████
- 90%: ██ █ ███████████████████████████████████
- 80%: █████ █████████████ ████