Results of Predictions for 2022

The percentage buckets which I chose were 60%, 80%, and 90%.

Overall, I was, again, quite overconfident:

• 90%: 4 right, 2 wrong, 66%
• 80%: 12 right, 5 wrong, 70%
• 60%: 4 right, 3 wrong 57%

Overall, I judge myself to be quite uncalibrated.

Economic, Macro

1. (Wrong) 60%: Dollar ends lower against yuan (6.36)
2. (Right) 80%: Bitcoin ends the year lower than 150k.
3. (Right) 80%: Bitcoin ends the year higher than 16k.
4. (Right) 80%: Ether ends year lower than 10k.
5. (Wrong, juuust barely) 80%: Ether ends year higher than 1.2k.
6. (Right) 80%: Gold ends year > 1.2k and lower than 2.4k.
7. (Right) 80%: Unemployment is < 6%.
8. (Right) 60%: Inflation by CPI > 4.5%.
9. (Right) 80%: Inflation by CPI > 3.5%.
10. (Right) 80%: Inflation by CPI < 12%
11. (Right) 60%: Inflation by CPI < 8%

Politics

1. (Right) 90%: China hasn't invaded Taiwan

Technical + Misc

1. (Right) 80%: SLS is not canceled.
2. (Wrong) 80%: Starship reaches > 100 kilometers at least once.
3. (Wrong) 60%: GPT-3 successor released by OpenAI.
4. (Wrong) 90%: Something more efficient than EfficientZero on Atari 100k comes out.
5. (Right) 60%: Something I judge "more impressive" than the DeepMind general learner, in terms of generality, comes out.

Health

1. (Right) 80%: ███████████ ██████ █████ █ █████████
2. (Wrong) 80%: █ ███████████████████████ ███████ ████ █████
3. (Wrong) 60%: Have gotten heartrate to 60 BPM or below, generally, for a day at least.
4. (Right) 90%: █████ █████

Meta

1. (Right) 60%: Site has total of < 20000 views.
2. (Right) 80%: Site has total of < 100000 views.

Goals / Personal

1. (Right) 90%: Blog is still something I actively work on at end of year.
2. (Wrong) 80%: ██ █ ████ ███████ ██ ███████ █████
3. (Right) 80%: ████ █ ████ ██████ █ █
4. (Right) 90%: ██████ █ ███ ███ ███ █████ ██ █ ██████ ████
5. (Right) 80%: ███████ █ ████ ██ █ █████ ███ █████ ██████ █
6. (Wrong) 90%: █ ███████████ ██████████ ██████ ████████
7. (Wrong) 80%: ███ █ █ ██ ██████████ ███